UCLA Anderson Forecast: Weak Hiring to Persist Through 2026

NewsData.io · United States · Sep 30, 2026

The UCLA Anderson Forecast's September 2026 outlook projects GDP growth above 2% through year-end but warns of continued weak labor markets nationally and in California, with unemployment holding near 4.2% and California's rate at 5.1%. Payroll gains have slowed as inflation and an oil shock stemming from the Iran conflict weigh on the economy, with another Fed rate hike expected in December. California is characterized as being in an 'employment recession,' with recovery not expected until early 2027 as tech, aerospace, and related industries resume hiring. Staffing firms should anticipate soft temp and direct-hire demand through year-end, particularly in California, while monitoring the projected 2027 tech and aerospace rebound for early positioning.