Seasonal Retail Hiring Expected to Drop 2.5% in Q4 2026: Challenger

HR Dive · United States · Oct 5, 2026

U.S. seasonal retail hiring is forecast to fall 2.5% year over year to roughly 450,000 jobs in Q4 2026, according to new predictive data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Retailers including Amazon, Target, Bath & Body Works, and Kohl's have yet to announce seasonal headcount targets, reflecting a broader shift toward flexible, on-demand staffing models over large pre-planned hiring waves. High prices, tariff uncertainty, and cautious consumer confidence are prompting employers to rely on existing staff and contingent pools rather than committing early. Staffing firms that support retail clients should expect smaller, shorter-notice seasonal placement volumes and increased demand for on-demand or temp-to-perm arrangements.